The trend report applies Bollinger Bands to the development of production and sales since the year 2000. This statistical measure, which is widespread in the financial world, covers 67% of all values deviating from the average of the last 12 months. Thus, at a glance, the bands illustrate the fluctuation range of production and sales over a period of 18 years.
The trend report divides this long period into four stages. As expected, in the period of the last global economic crisis the fluctuation range of production was greatest with 43.5 index points and sales with €7.8bn.
After overcoming the crisis low from 2013 to the first half of 2018, the fluctuation range of production is 37.9 index points and that of sales €7.4bn.
Compared this period with the similar economic cycle of the years 2005 to 2008, the surprising result is: the fluctuation range of production is 17% higher and that of sales 27% higher than in the comparable economic cycle before the last crisis.
However, in the period before the last crisis, production grew much more strongly with a smaller fluctuation margin, while it has been almost stagnating since 2013 with a 17% higher fluctuation margin.
The situation is similar with sales: before the crisis, sales in the machiner yindustry grew more strongly with a smaller fluctuation margin, while after the crisis they grew less strongly with a 27% increase in the fluctuation margin.
The Quest Trend Report identifies this new phenomenon as a further, sixth structural change that has developed in the course of global industrial production. The five structural changes are presented in further trend analyses.
The new Quest Trendreport is available on https://www.quest-trendmagazine.com/en/machinery-industry/production-and-sales/production-and-sales-of-machinery-industry-since-2000.html
The trend report on the structural changes in the course of global industrial production is available on https://www.quest-trendmagazine.com/en/global-economy/outlook/structural-changes.html
The trend report divides this long period into four stages. As expected, in the period of the last global economic crisis the fluctuation range of production was greatest with 43.5 index points and sales with €7.8bn.
After overcoming the crisis low from 2013 to the first half of 2018, the fluctuation range of production is 37.9 index points and that of sales €7.4bn.
Compared this period with the similar economic cycle of the years 2005 to 2008, the surprising result is: the fluctuation range of production is 17% higher and that of sales 27% higher than in the comparable economic cycle before the last crisis.
However, in the period before the last crisis, production grew much more strongly with a smaller fluctuation margin, while it has been almost stagnating since 2013 with a 17% higher fluctuation margin.
The situation is similar with sales: before the crisis, sales in the machiner yindustry grew more strongly with a smaller fluctuation margin, while after the crisis they grew less strongly with a 27% increase in the fluctuation margin.
The Quest Trend Report identifies this new phenomenon as a further, sixth structural change that has developed in the course of global industrial production. The five structural changes are presented in further trend analyses.
The new Quest Trendreport is available on https://www.quest-trendmagazine.com/en/machinery-industry/production-and-sales/production-and-sales-of-machinery-industry-since-2000.html
The trend report on the structural changes in the course of global industrial production is available on https://www.quest-trendmagazine.com/en/global-economy/outlook/structural-changes.html
