Im vierten Quartal 2012 wird die deutsche Wirtschaft vo-raussichtlich schrumpfen, bevor im kommenden Jahr eine zunächst leichte Er-holung einsetzt. Darauf deutet das ifo Geschäftsklima hin, das in den vergange-nen Monaten den Aufschwungsbereich verlassen hat, zuletzt aber wieder spür-bar gestiegen ist. Maßgeblich für die Konjunkturschwäche ist die Eurokrise. Im Jahresdurchschnitt 2013 dürfte das reale Bruttoinlandsprodukt, bei einem Unsi-cherheitsintervall (2/3 Wahrscheinlichkeit) von -0,6 % bis 2,0 %, daher nur um 0,7 % zunehmen. Getragen von der Binnennachfrage dürfte die Konjunktur im kommenden Jahr wieder an Fahrt gewinnen, sofern die Europäische Schulden-krise nicht erneut eskaliert. Der Beschäftigungsaufbau wird dabei aber noch nicht nennenswert nx Qxti llkfnw.
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