The Estonian transmission network operator Elering has been using ProCom BoFiT for the past five years to forecast the electrical network load across Estonia and its regions. End of 2016, ProCom got the order to extend the BoFiT system to predict gas consumption in the country and up to 36 gas distribution stations as well as the forecast of the electrical transmission network losses in Estonia. These forecasts run productively since the end of February 2017.
Elering expects from better gas forecasts an increased security of supply and reliability; improved utilization of transport and distribution capacities as well as an exacter planning base for their targeted expansion; and a more efficient gas purchase even over long periods to meet customer requirements safely and cost-effectively.
With a more accurate network losses forecast, Elering is able to purchase the exact amount at the best price and to avoid control energy costs. BoFiT generates day-ahead and intraday forecasts. The grid loss forecasts use the following predictions as influence factors, some of which also BoFiT generated:
• Estonian power generation in the various large-scale power plants and the wind power generation as well as the load. From those BoFiT derives the net position of Estonia.
• net position of Latvia, Lithuania, Belarus and Kaliningrad
• cross-border energy flows with Russia
• flows of electrical energy from and to Finland via the two Estlinks (HVDC links)
• weather conditions in Estonia and the surrounding countries
• electricity prices at the NordPool Spot Exchange for Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania
Meaningful reports summarize all forecast results. On the next day, when the results of the measurement are available, BoFiT documents the accuracy of the predictions in two accuracy reports.
Elering expects from better gas forecasts an increased security of supply and reliability; improved utilization of transport and distribution capacities as well as an exacter planning base for their targeted expansion; and a more efficient gas purchase even over long periods to meet customer requirements safely and cost-effectively.
With a more accurate network losses forecast, Elering is able to purchase the exact amount at the best price and to avoid control energy costs. BoFiT generates day-ahead and intraday forecasts. The grid loss forecasts use the following predictions as influence factors, some of which also BoFiT generated:
• Estonian power generation in the various large-scale power plants and the wind power generation as well as the load. From those BoFiT derives the net position of Estonia.
• net position of Latvia, Lithuania, Belarus and Kaliningrad
• cross-border energy flows with Russia
• flows of electrical energy from and to Finland via the two Estlinks (HVDC links)
• weather conditions in Estonia and the surrounding countries
• electricity prices at the NordPool Spot Exchange for Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania
Meaningful reports summarize all forecast results. On the next day, when the results of the measurement are available, BoFiT documents the accuracy of the predictions in two accuracy reports.
