Global optical networking equipment spending down through 2Q12
Ovum advises market needs a big 4Q12 to boost spending
In a new report, the independent telecoms analyst firm states that the market continues to disappoint and that some vendors are taking advantage of growth pockets better than others.
Dana Cooperson, Vice President and Practice Leader of Network Infrastructure at Ovum, says: "Preliminary analysis of 2Q12 offers more reasons for concern. Global spending in the quarter dropped 8 percent compared with 2Q11 to USD$3.8bn. This is the second year-over-year drop in a row. The global decline was mainly driven by spending softness in North America and EMEA, each down 19 percent to USD$876m and USD$950m, respectively."
"It will be very challenging to make the 2 percent growth we've predicted for the year, although as Asia-Pacific and SCA become a larger part of the global market, spending is shifting strongly to the fourth quarter."
The market will need a big 4Q12 to boost 2012 spending. But, as third quarter spending historically declines from 2Q, Ovum does not assume any improvements next quarter.
Cooperson comments: "With 1H12 behind us, we are trending toward our pessimistic scenarios in North America and EMEA. Despite good prospects in Asia-Pacific and SCA, this was not sufficient throughout the first half of the year to push the global market to growth. Prospects in the eurozone have not yet improved and are unlikely to turn around quickly. Prospects for North American tier-2 carriers are improving, but any growth in spending may not make up the gap for vendors that depend on spending by the largest carriers."
"We will advise our clients that 2 percent global growth prospects for 2012 look dim. We are planning a forecast update by the end of the year to incorporate our new product segmentation; we will also update our most likely, optimistic, and pessimistic scenarios as needed," concludes Cooperson.
Ovum provides clients with independent and objective analysis that enables them to make better business and technology decisions. Our research draws upon over 400,000 interviews a year with business and technology, telecoms and sourcing decision-makers, giving Ovum and our clients unparalleled insight not only into business requirements but also the technology that organizations must support. Ovum is an Informa business.