Im Sommerhalbjahr wird die deutsche Konjunktur voraussichtlich eine Schwächephase durchlaufen. Darauf deutet das ifo Geschäftsklima hin, das sich im Mai und Juni merklich eingetrübt hat. Maßgeblich dafür ist die anhaltende Unsicherheit über den Fortgang der europäischen Schuldenkrise. Im Jahresdurchschnitt 2012 dürfte das reale Bruttoinlandsprodukt - bei einem 67%-Unsicherheitsintervall von 0,1 % bis 1,3 % - daher nur um 0,7 % steigen. Getragen von der Binnennachfrage dürfte die Konjunktur im kommenden Jahr wieder an Fahrt gewinnen, sofern die Europäische Schuldenkrise nicht massiv eskaliert. Die Beschäftigung dürfte sich im gesamten Zeitraum weiter erhöhen.
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